Jameel Ahmad briefs global investors on declining inflation, stronger foreign reserves, and a positive growth outlook for Pakistan.
Key Takeaways:
i) The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor, Jameel Ahmad, affirmed Pakistan’s improving macroeconomic stability and economic outlook during meetings with global financial leaders in Washington D.C.
ii) Governor Ahmad pointed to a sharp decline in inflation, with headline inflation reaching a multi-decade low of 0.7% in March 2025, and a significant increase in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
iii) He projected a gradual recovery in Pakistan’s GDP growth to around 3% for the fiscal year 2025, noting that international credit rating agencies have also acknowledged the economic improvements.
Karachi, Pakistan – State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad has reassured international investors about Pakistan’s strengthening economic position. Speaking at high-level meetings held on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., Governor Ahmad engaged with senior executives from major global financial and investment institutions, including JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Deutsche, and Jefferies, as well as prominent credit rating agencies.
During these interactions, Governor Ahmad provided an update on the significant progress Pakistan has made in stabilizing its economy. He emphasized that the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, coupled with consistent efforts towards fiscal consolidation, has been instrumental in achieving macroeconomic stability. A key highlight was the substantial reduction in headline inflation, which has fallen sharply over the past two years to a remarkable 0.7% in March 2025 – the lowest in decades. Furthermore, core inflation has also seen a considerable decrease, moving from over 22% to a single-digit figure and is expected to moderate further in the coming months, with headline inflation projected to stabilize within the 5-7% target range.
On the external front, Governor Ahmad highlighted the considerable improvement in Pakistan’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves. He noted that the SBP’s FX reserves have more than tripled since hitting a low point in February 2023, accompanied by a significant reduction in forward liabilities. Importantly, he stressed that this build-up of reserves differs from previous instances as it is not attributed to an accumulation of external debt. In fact, Pakistan’s public sector external debt, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, has decreased since June 2022. This improvement, according to Governor Ahmad, reflects the SBP’s strategic focus on enhancing the economy’s resilience against external shocks, including the ongoing uncertainties in global trade.
Looking ahead, Governor Ahmad informed the participants that as economic conditions have stabilized, Pakistan’s GDP growth is gradually recovering and is projected to be around 3% during the current fiscal year (FY25). He also pointed out that international credit rating agencies have recognized the positive developments in the country’s economy. Governor Ahmad underscored that maintaining macroeconomic stability remains a top priority for policymakers, alongside the implementation of structural reforms aimed at fostering sustainable growth and socioeconomic uplift across various sectors of the economy. He concluded with a positive outlook, expressing confidence that continued progress on the reform agenda will enable Pakistan to achieve long-term, sustainable economic growth.
